Polymarket Bets Trigger Nobel Leak Probe in Norway

Norwegian authorities are investigating a potential information leak after online bets on this year’s Nobel Peace Prize winner spiked hours before the announcement. The surge in wagers, favoring Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, suggests possible insider trading on Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform.

Data reveals three accounts—including one under the handle 'dirtycup'—collectively netted $90,000 in profits from Machado's win. The Nobel Committee confirmed its decision was made earlier in the week, calling the incident a 'serious breach of confidentiality.' Kristian Berg Harpviken of the Norwegian Nobel Institute accused an unnamed 'criminal actor' of exploiting privileged information.

The incident highlights regulatory gray areas in prediction markets, where real-world events become tradable assets. Polymarket previously faced scrutiny from the CFTC in 2022 for operating without proper registration.